Number of economically inactive people due to long-term sickness in the UK 2000-2024

There was a peak of 2.82 million people not working due to long-term sickness in the UK in the first quarter of 2024, with this figure falling slightly in subsequent quarters. This figure has been rising considerably since 2019, when there were just over two million people economically inactive for this reason. Before 2022, the previous peak for people on long-term sick leave was in the late 2021 and early 2022, at just over 2.38 million. At that time, the main reason for economic inactivity among the UK labor force was people who were looking after family members. Since the third quarter of 2021, however, long-term and temporary sickness has been the main reason that people were economically inactive, accounting for 32.2 percent of economic inactivity in the third quarter of 2024. 

What is driving the increase in long-term sickness?

It is unclear if there are any specific reasons for the continued growth of long-term sickness in the UK. As of 2022, some of the most common health conditions cited as the reason for long-term sickness were to do with mental health issues, with 313,00 suffering from mental illness, and a further 282,000 for depression-related illness. It is also likely that the COVID-19 pandemic caused an impact, with around 1.8 million people in April 2022 reporting an experience of Long Covid. In general, while the majority of people on long-term sick leave are over the age of 50, there has been a noticeable increase in those aged under 35 being off on long-term sickness. Between 2019 and 2022, the number of those aged between 16 and 34 on long-term sickness increased by 140,000, compared with just 32,000 for those aged between 35 and 49.

Hot UK labor market set to cool in 2024?

In 2022, the UK labor market was weighted significantly in favor of workers and people looking for work. Unemployment fell to its lowest levels since the 1970s, while job vacancies reached a peak of more than 1.3 million in May. Wage growth also remained strong during this period, although as this occurred at a time of high inflation, wages fell in real terms for a long period between November 2021 and June 2023. Although the job market has continued to show signs of resilience, redundancies in December were at their highest levels since April 2021, at 116,000. By historic standards, the UK labor market remains quite tight, even if there are signals that a readjustment is occurring heading into 2024.